The Cleveland Sports Scene as Seen By ATD.
Cleveland and Detroit...Baseball
It's October, which means playoff baseball, and it again does not include your Cleveland Indians. Nope. It was a flash in the pan season, a season that saw the Tribe in first place with a 6 game lead and ended with the team in second buried by the surging Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are still alive, scratching and clawing for a spot in the World Series. The Tigers also spent twice as much on payroll.
The Tigers are a great example of what happens when management spends money on their team. The Tigers were the laughingstock of baseball in the 1990's, while the Indians were the kings of the AL Central. Then something happened that spurred Detroit to spend...the NHL went on strike and the team owner (Mike Ilitch) who also owns the Red Wings (NHL hockey power) had money to spend on the Tigers. Low and behold, they put a good team on the field, and people started to support the team again.
Cleveland Indians management has a different theory involving a chicken and the egg. They believe "if you come, we will build it." It must explain why the attendance has been among the lowest in baseball. You get what you pay for, I guess. It is hard to grasp running a business where management sells Grade F steak for Grade A price. If enough people buy the inferior steak, the owner will upgrade the meat. If the Indians were a restaurant, they wouldn't last a week.
From 1993 to 2002, the Indians drew around $2 to 3.4 million fans a year. The team was not competitive in 1993, but it was the last season in Cleveland Municipal Stadium and nostalgia jacked that number up there. So from 1994 to 2002, the attendance numbers were unprecedented. The economy and sports climate in the city were an additional aberration. My point though, is that ownership increased the payroll and continued to for about a decade. The ballpark did not sell out the first year of Jacobs Field, but did so the next 5 seasons. Every game!
Friday, October 14, 2011
Friday, September 30, 2011
Will The Cleveland Indians Really Increase The Payroll For 2012?
The 2011 Indians payroll was $49.2 M, 26th out of 30 teams. Nearly $27 M was tied up in three players: Travis Hafner ($13 M), Grady Sizemore ($7.6 M), and Fausto Carmona ($6.285 M). Hafner played in 94 games, Sizemore in 71, while Carmona missed just one start only to have a dreadful season (7-15, 5.25 ERA). The Indians have been thrifty for the last 9 seasons and have very little margin for error when they DO spend money.
According to Baseball Prospectus.com, the Indians have just 3 players under contract for next year: Hafner, Sizemore, and Ubaldo Jimenez ($4.2 M). Baseball has a unique system that requires players to have "service time" (time on major league roster) in order to earn free agency. If a player has fewer than 5 years of service time, the team controls that player's contract . The salary can be set by the team or by an independent arbitor. The Indians have not had to use arbitration since the early 1990's. In my opinion, Carmona should only return if he makes no more than Ubaldo's $4.2 M. The team can decline his option and still offer arbitration for 2012. Offering arbitration ties Carmona to the club for 2012, but likely for less than what he made this season.
According to MLBtraderumors.com, the team has 8 arbitration-eligible players: Justin Masterson, Jack Hannahan, Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Smith, Carmona, and Rafael Perez. Based on the site's ratings for what the players are worth and assuming the team picks up Sizemore's option, the payroll would be about $56 M. GM Chris Antonetti will be telling the truth by saying that the payroll will increase for 2012. It will increase just by keeping the same players from last season.
2009: $81.6 M
2010: $61.5 M
2011: $49.2 M
As for the rest of the money for 2012, the team needs a 1B, LF/CF. The only money available to spend would be Grady's $9 M. If Sizemore does not have his option picked up, he would be a free agent. He is not in an advantageous position heading into free agency, especially if he needs additional knee surgery. Therefore, he will not see many good offers. That being the case, the Indians may sign him to an incentive-laden contract with the potential to reach his full option money.
The Indians usually target players in Sizemore's situation. Guys like Carl Pavano who have been hurt and are trying to audition for their next contract. If Grady gets an offer for $3-4 M plus incentives, he would probably have to take it. That offer might come from the Indians alone. If Grady decides to stay for less than his option number of $9 M, let's say $4 M, the team could spend $5 M on a first baseman. Here is what the team would bring back for 2012:
C Carlos Santana
1B
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
LF Michael Brantley
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Shin-Soo Choo
DH Travis Hafner
First Base Options (mlbtraderumors.com):
Russell Branyan (36) *Been There, Done That*
Jorge Cantu (30) *Would Come Cheap*
Michael Cuddyer (33) *Great Option*
Prince Fielder (28) *No Chance*
Ross Gload (36) *Too Old, Not That Good*
Brad Hawpe (33) *Injured, Tommy John*
Eric Hinske (34) - $1.5M club option with a $100K buyout
Casey Kotchman (29) *Plus defense, good obp, not a big run producer*
Mark Kotsay (36) *Too Old*
Derrek Lee (36) *Washed Up*
Xavier Nady (33) *Platoon player, no power*
Lyle Overbay (35) *over the hill, no power*
Carlos Pena (34) *An actual power hitter, getting older, low average/high obp*
Wily Mo Pena (30) *Platoon player*
Albert Pujols (32) *No F'ing Way!*
#1. Michael Cuddyer .284/20hr/70rbi/.346/.459/.805/3.1 war
#2. Carlos Pena .225/28hr/80rbi/.357/.462/.819/2.6 war
#3. Casey Kotchman .306/10hr/48rbi/.378/.422/.800/2.8 war
Carlos Santana .239/27hr/79rbi/.351/.457/.808/3.8 war
Left Field
#1. Josh Willingham (33) .246/29hr/98rbi/.332/.477/.809/2.1 war
#2. Ryan Ludwick (33) .237/13hr/75rbi/.310/.363/.670/0.3 war
The Indians need to target 2 players from the above list. Michael Cuddyer would be the best choice not only based on the numbers, but because he can play 1B and LF/RF. Pena or Kotchman would help as well. If none of them can be targeted, Josh Willingham would be a decent fall back. I'm going to have a little creative license and project an opening day lineup.
C Carlos Santana
1B Michael Cuddyer
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
LF Josh Willingham
CF Michael Brantley
RF Shin-Soo Choo
DH Travis Hafner
1) Michael Brantley .266/.318/.384
2) Jason Kipnis .272/.333/.507
3) Asdrubal Cabrera .273/.332/.460
4) Travis Hafner .280/.361/.449
5) Carlos Santana .239/.351/.457
6) Josh Willingham .246/.332/.477
7) Michael Cuddyer .284/.346/.459
or Carlos Pena .225/.357/.462
8) Shin-Soo Choo .259/.344/.390
9) Lonnie Chisenhall .255/.284/.415
I would be excited about that lineup. Is it possible? It depends on what happens to Grady and what the market will be for Cuddyer. He could go for $9 M a year. If he does it will not be with the Indians. My projection for what the Indians will spend in free agency is $10M. Willingham may be worth $4-5M. Pena & Kotchman could fetch about the same. Maybe they replace Grady with Pena and Williamham. I do not think Grady can stay healthy so it would be a good replacement.
Will the Indians management really spend money for 2012? Yes. My payroll guess is about $56-60M. It would be an increase of $7-11M from last year. And it will not include Grade Sizemore.
The 2011 Indians payroll was $49.2 M, 26th out of 30 teams. Nearly $27 M was tied up in three players: Travis Hafner ($13 M), Grady Sizemore ($7.6 M), and Fausto Carmona ($6.285 M). Hafner played in 94 games, Sizemore in 71, while Carmona missed just one start only to have a dreadful season (7-15, 5.25 ERA). The Indians have been thrifty for the last 9 seasons and have very little margin for error when they DO spend money.
According to Baseball Prospectus.com, the Indians have just 3 players under contract for next year: Hafner, Sizemore, and Ubaldo Jimenez ($4.2 M). Baseball has a unique system that requires players to have "service time" (time on major league roster) in order to earn free agency. If a player has fewer than 5 years of service time, the team controls that player's contract . The salary can be set by the team or by an independent arbitor. The Indians have not had to use arbitration since the early 1990's. In my opinion, Carmona should only return if he makes no more than Ubaldo's $4.2 M. The team can decline his option and still offer arbitration for 2012. Offering arbitration ties Carmona to the club for 2012, but likely for less than what he made this season.
According to MLBtraderumors.com, the team has 8 arbitration-eligible players: Justin Masterson, Jack Hannahan, Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Smith, Carmona, and Rafael Perez. Based on the site's ratings for what the players are worth and assuming the team picks up Sizemore's option, the payroll would be about $56 M. GM Chris Antonetti will be telling the truth by saying that the payroll will increase for 2012. It will increase just by keeping the same players from last season.
2009: $81.6 M
2010: $61.5 M
2011: $49.2 M
As for the rest of the money for 2012, the team needs a 1B, LF/CF. The only money available to spend would be Grady's $9 M. If Sizemore does not have his option picked up, he would be a free agent. He is not in an advantageous position heading into free agency, especially if he needs additional knee surgery. Therefore, he will not see many good offers. That being the case, the Indians may sign him to an incentive-laden contract with the potential to reach his full option money.
The Indians usually target players in Sizemore's situation. Guys like Carl Pavano who have been hurt and are trying to audition for their next contract. If Grady gets an offer for $3-4 M plus incentives, he would probably have to take it. That offer might come from the Indians alone. If Grady decides to stay for less than his option number of $9 M, let's say $4 M, the team could spend $5 M on a first baseman. Here is what the team would bring back for 2012:
C Carlos Santana
1B
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
LF Michael Brantley
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Shin-Soo Choo
DH Travis Hafner
First Base Options (mlbtraderumors.com):
Russell Branyan (36) *Been There, Done That*
Jorge Cantu (30) *Would Come Cheap*
Michael Cuddyer (33) *Great Option*
Prince Fielder (28) *No Chance*
Ross Gload (36) *Too Old, Not That Good*
Brad Hawpe (33) *Injured, Tommy John*
Eric Hinske (34) - $1.5M club option with a $100K buyout
Casey Kotchman (29) *Plus defense, good obp, not a big run producer*
Mark Kotsay (36) *Too Old*
Derrek Lee (36) *Washed Up*
Xavier Nady (33) *Platoon player, no power*
Lyle Overbay (35) *over the hill, no power*
Carlos Pena (34) *An actual power hitter, getting older, low average/high obp*
Wily Mo Pena (30) *Platoon player*
Albert Pujols (32) *No F'ing Way!*
#1. Michael Cuddyer .284/20hr/70rbi/.346/.459/.805/3.1 war
#2. Carlos Pena .225/28hr/80rbi/.357/.462/.819/2.6 war
#3. Casey Kotchman .306/10hr/48rbi/.378/.422/.800/2.8 war
Carlos Santana .239/27hr/79rbi/.351/.457/.808/3.8 war
Left Field
#1. Josh Willingham (33) .246/29hr/98rbi/.332/.477/.809/2.1 war
#2. Ryan Ludwick (33) .237/13hr/75rbi/.310/.363/.670/0.3 war
The Indians need to target 2 players from the above list. Michael Cuddyer would be the best choice not only based on the numbers, but because he can play 1B and LF/RF. Pena or Kotchman would help as well. If none of them can be targeted, Josh Willingham would be a decent fall back. I'm going to have a little creative license and project an opening day lineup.
C Carlos Santana
1B Michael Cuddyer
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
LF Josh Willingham
CF Michael Brantley
RF Shin-Soo Choo
DH Travis Hafner
1) Michael Brantley .266/.318/.384
2) Jason Kipnis .272/.333/.507
3) Asdrubal Cabrera .273/.332/.460
4) Travis Hafner .280/.361/.449
5) Carlos Santana .239/.351/.457
6) Josh Willingham .246/.332/.477
7) Michael Cuddyer .284/.346/.459
or Carlos Pena .225/.357/.462
8) Shin-Soo Choo .259/.344/.390
9) Lonnie Chisenhall .255/.284/.415
I would be excited about that lineup. Is it possible? It depends on what happens to Grady and what the market will be for Cuddyer. He could go for $9 M a year. If he does it will not be with the Indians. My projection for what the Indians will spend in free agency is $10M. Willingham may be worth $4-5M. Pena & Kotchman could fetch about the same. Maybe they replace Grady with Pena and Williamham. I do not think Grady can stay healthy so it would be a good replacement.
Will the Indians management really spend money for 2012? Yes. My payroll guess is about $56-60M. It would be an increase of $7-11M from last year. And it will not include Grade Sizemore.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Browns, Cavs, Indians (Not So) Quick Hits
The 2011 Cleveland Browns look striking similar to the 1999-2010 version: mistake-prone, unable to stop the run, shrinking violets when it matters. There are still 15 games left to maybe figure out the new offense, stuff the run on D, and not look terrible/embarrassing.
Somehow, the Browns were 6 1/2 point favorites against the Bengals. They proceeded to play possibly the worst 15 minutes of football since the rebirth. The offense moved backwards on the first possession with penalties and a couple tackles for loss winding up with a 3-and-out and a 20 yard punt. How is that for starting the season?
It is embarrassing to be a Browns fan. A 20 yard punt? Obviously that is beyond terrible. Unfortunately the punting woes did not end there. He also "contributed" a 28 & 30 yarder. The team placed Mr. McGee on injured reserve after the game. It was reported that the team knew of his back issue prior to kickoff, but figured f it, let's play him anyway. It's a well known fact that punters are generally the toughest guys on the team.
Why am I spending so much time on the punting game? His crappy punts led to 17 points! The great field position helped take the pressure off the Bengals offense, which was led by rookie Andy Dalton. Short fields usually lead to points. If the team knew that McGee was hurt and then watched him shank his first punt of the game 20 yards, why did Coach Shurmur let him shank 2 more? Why? Easy, it was Shurmur's first regular season game as a coach at any level.
Let's hope most of the embarrassing football was shaked out on opening day. After all the crappy football over the past decade, it's time to get this right. I want to see a sound football team that plays hard, plays smart, and doesn't beat itself. The team still has a long way to go talent-wise before it can win consistantly. It is not too much to ask of a team to avoid multiply false start penalties and punting it shorter than a decent Pop Warner team.
Cavs
I am a huge fan of the NBA lockout. I hope it goes the distance. I am sickened by what has happened to the league over the past few years. Owners need to stand their ground and gain control back from the agents and players. Plus, the Cavs are going to be terrible. Oh, and it keeps Lebron from winning anything.
Indians
I hope something good can be taken from the 2011 season. The team played good for a month and a half and like usual the rest of the way. I believe that is known as regression to the mean. There are some real questions about this team going into next year. The lineup is impish and the starting pitching lacks an ace and some depth. Grady Sizemore has no future with this team. He has not been able to stay healthy and when he has, he turned into Cory Snyder. Travis Hafner is an anchor and not in a good way. His high salary takes up nearly a third of the payroll. He had some hot streaks this year, but still is an injury risk. I believe he's under contract for 2 more seasons.
There are a few bright spots. Asdrubal Cabrera had a breakout year (although he is on fumes right now), Carlos Santana has been resilient, and Jason Kipnis has shown promise. That just leaves question marks at 1B, 3B, LF, and CF. Lonnie Chisenhall is seen as the answer at third, but he has not exactly shown it at the big league level. Matt LaPorta has shown nothing in parts of 3 seasons with the team. I hope that the front office actually tries to address these holes in the off season. I'm not counting on it.
On the the pitching staff...Justin Masterson has been great all year. That is where the consistency ends. Ubaldo Jimenez could be good, but he can hardly get through 5 or 6 innings without throwing 100 pitches. I'm not sure if Josh Tomlin is healthy. He had a nice year and won 11 games. Ultimately, he would be a decent 4 or 5 starter on a playoff team. Fausto Carmona is someone that I am ready to pull the plug on. His starts are nerve-wracking to watch and he is never the same pitcher from start to start. Let him be someone else's project. David Huff does not fool me, either. His ERA makes you think he's good. His track record the last couple years says this guy is a bum.
Starters
Justin Masterson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Fausto Carmona
Josh Tomlin (if he doesn't need surgery)
Jeanmar Gomez
I want Jimenez and Carmona gone. I don't like watching them pitch. It's like a slow-motion train wreck. Tomlin's consistent, but is a soft tosser. Gomez would be adequate as the 5th starter. Masterson is the #1 only because someone has to take the ball on opening day. He's not an ace, but he had a strong 2011. If he got any run support, he'd have 18 wins.
Lineup
SS Cabrera
2B Kipnis
RF Choo
DH Hafner
C Santana
CF Sizemore
3B Chisenhall
1B LaPorta
LF Crowe
This probably won't be the actual lineup. It's my attempt to show that the front office will sit on their hands and act like having everyone healthy is like making additions. At the very least, the team needs to add a first basemen and left fielder. Those spots should not be at the bottom of the order. LaPorta is a bust. Also, left field should contribute 20 homers minimum.
That's all I got.
The 2011 Cleveland Browns look striking similar to the 1999-2010 version: mistake-prone, unable to stop the run, shrinking violets when it matters. There are still 15 games left to maybe figure out the new offense, stuff the run on D, and not look terrible/embarrassing.
Somehow, the Browns were 6 1/2 point favorites against the Bengals. They proceeded to play possibly the worst 15 minutes of football since the rebirth. The offense moved backwards on the first possession with penalties and a couple tackles for loss winding up with a 3-and-out and a 20 yard punt. How is that for starting the season?
It is embarrassing to be a Browns fan. A 20 yard punt? Obviously that is beyond terrible. Unfortunately the punting woes did not end there. He also "contributed" a 28 & 30 yarder. The team placed Mr. McGee on injured reserve after the game. It was reported that the team knew of his back issue prior to kickoff, but figured f it, let's play him anyway. It's a well known fact that punters are generally the toughest guys on the team.
Why am I spending so much time on the punting game? His crappy punts led to 17 points! The great field position helped take the pressure off the Bengals offense, which was led by rookie Andy Dalton. Short fields usually lead to points. If the team knew that McGee was hurt and then watched him shank his first punt of the game 20 yards, why did Coach Shurmur let him shank 2 more? Why? Easy, it was Shurmur's first regular season game as a coach at any level.
Let's hope most of the embarrassing football was shaked out on opening day. After all the crappy football over the past decade, it's time to get this right. I want to see a sound football team that plays hard, plays smart, and doesn't beat itself. The team still has a long way to go talent-wise before it can win consistantly. It is not too much to ask of a team to avoid multiply false start penalties and punting it shorter than a decent Pop Warner team.
Cavs
I am a huge fan of the NBA lockout. I hope it goes the distance. I am sickened by what has happened to the league over the past few years. Owners need to stand their ground and gain control back from the agents and players. Plus, the Cavs are going to be terrible. Oh, and it keeps Lebron from winning anything.
Indians
I hope something good can be taken from the 2011 season. The team played good for a month and a half and like usual the rest of the way. I believe that is known as regression to the mean. There are some real questions about this team going into next year. The lineup is impish and the starting pitching lacks an ace and some depth. Grady Sizemore has no future with this team. He has not been able to stay healthy and when he has, he turned into Cory Snyder. Travis Hafner is an anchor and not in a good way. His high salary takes up nearly a third of the payroll. He had some hot streaks this year, but still is an injury risk. I believe he's under contract for 2 more seasons.
There are a few bright spots. Asdrubal Cabrera had a breakout year (although he is on fumes right now), Carlos Santana has been resilient, and Jason Kipnis has shown promise. That just leaves question marks at 1B, 3B, LF, and CF. Lonnie Chisenhall is seen as the answer at third, but he has not exactly shown it at the big league level. Matt LaPorta has shown nothing in parts of 3 seasons with the team. I hope that the front office actually tries to address these holes in the off season. I'm not counting on it.
On the the pitching staff...Justin Masterson has been great all year. That is where the consistency ends. Ubaldo Jimenez could be good, but he can hardly get through 5 or 6 innings without throwing 100 pitches. I'm not sure if Josh Tomlin is healthy. He had a nice year and won 11 games. Ultimately, he would be a decent 4 or 5 starter on a playoff team. Fausto Carmona is someone that I am ready to pull the plug on. His starts are nerve-wracking to watch and he is never the same pitcher from start to start. Let him be someone else's project. David Huff does not fool me, either. His ERA makes you think he's good. His track record the last couple years says this guy is a bum.
Starters
Justin Masterson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Fausto Carmona
Josh Tomlin (if he doesn't need surgery)
Jeanmar Gomez
I want Jimenez and Carmona gone. I don't like watching them pitch. It's like a slow-motion train wreck. Tomlin's consistent, but is a soft tosser. Gomez would be adequate as the 5th starter. Masterson is the #1 only because someone has to take the ball on opening day. He's not an ace, but he had a strong 2011. If he got any run support, he'd have 18 wins.
Lineup
SS Cabrera
2B Kipnis
RF Choo
DH Hafner
C Santana
CF Sizemore
3B Chisenhall
1B LaPorta
LF Crowe
This probably won't be the actual lineup. It's my attempt to show that the front office will sit on their hands and act like having everyone healthy is like making additions. At the very least, the team needs to add a first basemen and left fielder. Those spots should not be at the bottom of the order. LaPorta is a bust. Also, left field should contribute 20 homers minimum.
That's all I got.
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
The Tribe: 2011 Strong Start, Bitter Finish
It's crazy to think that the Cleveland Indians started off so amazingly well. A 30-15 record has given way to 40-55 clip, thus a 70-68 record as of September 6th. Technically, the team is in a pennant race with Detroit, but the team would need a frantic finish to take the crown. 24 games for the Indians, 21 for the Tigers. The Tribe are 6 games down in the loss column and 9 games in the win column which amounts to a 7.5 game deficit. If the Indians finish 20-4 down the stretch, their record would be 90-72. If the Tigers finish 11-10 their last 21, the teams would finish tied. The tiebreaker would be the head-to-head record.
Looking at the two rosters, the Tigers lineup looks vastly superior. The Tigers have 4 guys hitting over .300 to the Indians none. The Tigers have been fairly injury-free while the Indians have had injuries galore. Every statistic sides with the Tigers. All rational folks believe the Tigers will win the central. Yet, there sit the Cleveland Indians in 2nd place. No, they probably have no business being there. Not with the injuries and inexperienced lineup which looks pretty similar to what AAA Columbus trotted out there on opening day.
As bleak as it looks, guys are gaining experience in the big leagues when it counts. Baseball is a game played by grown men. It's played on a field and not on paper. I'd love to see the stat book thrown out the window. I'd love to see the Indians catch lightning in a bottle and run the table. Normally I would count them out by this point, but I decided to write this blog entry.
Maybe these kids can relax in the face of long odds and thrive. No pressure. Finish this out strong. One solid at bat at a time. One strike at a time. This is supposed to be fun. Smile out there and enjoy the beautiful game.
It's crazy to think that the Cleveland Indians started off so amazingly well. A 30-15 record has given way to 40-55 clip, thus a 70-68 record as of September 6th. Technically, the team is in a pennant race with Detroit, but the team would need a frantic finish to take the crown. 24 games for the Indians, 21 for the Tigers. The Tribe are 6 games down in the loss column and 9 games in the win column which amounts to a 7.5 game deficit. If the Indians finish 20-4 down the stretch, their record would be 90-72. If the Tigers finish 11-10 their last 21, the teams would finish tied. The tiebreaker would be the head-to-head record.
Looking at the two rosters, the Tigers lineup looks vastly superior. The Tigers have 4 guys hitting over .300 to the Indians none. The Tigers have been fairly injury-free while the Indians have had injuries galore. Every statistic sides with the Tigers. All rational folks believe the Tigers will win the central. Yet, there sit the Cleveland Indians in 2nd place. No, they probably have no business being there. Not with the injuries and inexperienced lineup which looks pretty similar to what AAA Columbus trotted out there on opening day.
As bleak as it looks, guys are gaining experience in the big leagues when it counts. Baseball is a game played by grown men. It's played on a field and not on paper. I'd love to see the stat book thrown out the window. I'd love to see the Indians catch lightning in a bottle and run the table. Normally I would count them out by this point, but I decided to write this blog entry.
Maybe these kids can relax in the face of long odds and thrive. No pressure. Finish this out strong. One solid at bat at a time. One strike at a time. This is supposed to be fun. Smile out there and enjoy the beautiful game.
Monday, February 21, 2011
The NBA in a handful of words...
David Stern has presided over the league for over 20 years. Stern has overseen a philosophical shift from marketing the team to the superstar. It all happened when Michael Jordan became the one man marketing tour de force. He made more money on endorsements than on the court. The league rode him all the way to the top. Instead of the Bulls versus the Lakers, it became Michael Jordan and the Bulls vs. Magic and the Lakers.
Now the NBA is obstensively a superstar league. The team concept is likely gone forever. The Lebron saga showed who really has power in the league: superstars and their agents. As a fan not living in a destination city, this is horrific to watch. The NBA is broken and needs to be fixed or blown up.
The new trend is for the stars to align. Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Rondo, Ray Allen, PP, and KG. Now add Amare and Melo to the mix. I understand why the players would seek out these pairings. They want to play with their friends and they like their title chances with the constellation method. The Miami threesome came together via free agency. The others were/will come together with trades and FA. The Miami group felt like a fix months in the making. The Boston team was helped by a lopsided trade made by former Boston teammates turned GM's (Ainge in Boston & McHale in Minnesota). The New York group was brokered via Melo's agent (also Lebron's) Leon Rose holding Denver hostage.
I am not comfortable with the inmates running the asylum. The star players are too wealthy and too powerful. The previous collective bargaining agreements (CBA's) established a soft salary cap and rules that allow teams to pay its best players more than they could receive from another team in free agency. This is known as "Bird rights". The Bird rights have allowed teams to keep their star players for the most part. The trend was bucked this past off season by Lebron, Bosh, and Amare.
The Redeem Team, the 2008 Olympic gold medal basketball team, is seen as the catalyst for Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Melo and Amare deciding to set their manifest destinies in place. The '08 team was loaded with stars who spent an entire month together in Beijing and obviously bonded. This is a free country and these guys were free agents. As a fan of a city and its basketball team in the rust and snow belt, I feel powerless.
The idea of having a salary cap is to allow for a competitive balance between the teams in the league. The NFL embodies competitive balance the best. The word parity is thrown around with the NFL, but never with the MLB or NBA. When more teams have a chance of being a winner year in and year out, more eyeballs are tuned in to watch. The NBA is a heartbeat away from turning into the MLB. Just 4 or 5 teams have a chance to win big, while the rest are just going through the motions. Leagues need to have 30 (32 in NFL) equal partners instead of a 4 team oligarchy and 26 team fiefdom. History backs this up. How did feudalism turn out? How are the last few monarchies working out?
How long before NBA GM's become either a thing of the past or former/current player agents? The agents seem to be brokering the deals and dictating terms to GM's. Carmelo Anthony and his agent (King Leon) held a gun to the Denver Nuggets and handed over a list of demands. Actually there was only 1 demand: trade me to the Knicks. Denver did not get to make the deal they wanted (a trade with New Jersey).
I don't live in a glamorous city and now that the superstar players/agents are calling the shots, the also-rans are being put on notice. Detroit may have won the last championship for the rust belt. Now the playing field has been tilted, much like baseball. If money is not enough to keep a free agent, a team like Cleveland is in big trouble. It will have to rely almost exclusively on the draft for talented players. The team's only real hold on a player is the rookie contract. This rookie contract is for 2 years with more years that are team options, so essentially 4 years. Then what? In the new NBA, maybe it means leaving for a power team.
David Stern has presided over the league for over 20 years. Stern has overseen a philosophical shift from marketing the team to the superstar. It all happened when Michael Jordan became the one man marketing tour de force. He made more money on endorsements than on the court. The league rode him all the way to the top. Instead of the Bulls versus the Lakers, it became Michael Jordan and the Bulls vs. Magic and the Lakers.
Now the NBA is obstensively a superstar league. The team concept is likely gone forever. The Lebron saga showed who really has power in the league: superstars and their agents. As a fan not living in a destination city, this is horrific to watch. The NBA is broken and needs to be fixed or blown up.
The new trend is for the stars to align. Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. Rondo, Ray Allen, PP, and KG. Now add Amare and Melo to the mix. I understand why the players would seek out these pairings. They want to play with their friends and they like their title chances with the constellation method. The Miami threesome came together via free agency. The others were/will come together with trades and FA. The Miami group felt like a fix months in the making. The Boston team was helped by a lopsided trade made by former Boston teammates turned GM's (Ainge in Boston & McHale in Minnesota). The New York group was brokered via Melo's agent (also Lebron's) Leon Rose holding Denver hostage.
I am not comfortable with the inmates running the asylum. The star players are too wealthy and too powerful. The previous collective bargaining agreements (CBA's) established a soft salary cap and rules that allow teams to pay its best players more than they could receive from another team in free agency. This is known as "Bird rights". The Bird rights have allowed teams to keep their star players for the most part. The trend was bucked this past off season by Lebron, Bosh, and Amare.
The Redeem Team, the 2008 Olympic gold medal basketball team, is seen as the catalyst for Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Melo and Amare deciding to set their manifest destinies in place. The '08 team was loaded with stars who spent an entire month together in Beijing and obviously bonded. This is a free country and these guys were free agents. As a fan of a city and its basketball team in the rust and snow belt, I feel powerless.
The idea of having a salary cap is to allow for a competitive balance between the teams in the league. The NFL embodies competitive balance the best. The word parity is thrown around with the NFL, but never with the MLB or NBA. When more teams have a chance of being a winner year in and year out, more eyeballs are tuned in to watch. The NBA is a heartbeat away from turning into the MLB. Just 4 or 5 teams have a chance to win big, while the rest are just going through the motions. Leagues need to have 30 (32 in NFL) equal partners instead of a 4 team oligarchy and 26 team fiefdom. History backs this up. How did feudalism turn out? How are the last few monarchies working out?
How long before NBA GM's become either a thing of the past or former/current player agents? The agents seem to be brokering the deals and dictating terms to GM's. Carmelo Anthony and his agent (King Leon) held a gun to the Denver Nuggets and handed over a list of demands. Actually there was only 1 demand: trade me to the Knicks. Denver did not get to make the deal they wanted (a trade with New Jersey).
I don't live in a glamorous city and now that the superstar players/agents are calling the shots, the also-rans are being put on notice. Detroit may have won the last championship for the rust belt. Now the playing field has been tilted, much like baseball. If money is not enough to keep a free agent, a team like Cleveland is in big trouble. It will have to rely almost exclusively on the draft for talented players. The team's only real hold on a player is the rookie contract. This rookie contract is for 2 years with more years that are team options, so essentially 4 years. Then what? In the new NBA, maybe it means leaving for a power team.
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
2010-2011: The Cleveland sports holocaust.
The Cavs go from first to worst. The Indians continue to be a farm team for the rest of baseball and had the MLB's worst attendance. The Tribe and Royals drag-raced for last in the AL Central and were able to gas past KC to hold on to 4th place. The Browns fired yet another head coach...Eric Mangini this time. The Brownies are working on coach #5 since the rebirth in 1999.
All three franchises are going nowhere. The Cavs are in the most immediate heap of crap. They went 0 for January(0-16) and are riding a 21 game losing streak. At least a top 4 lottery pick awaits them at season's end. The team is probably looking at a 3-4 year period where the lottery will be home. That is 3 or 4 chances of coming up with a new superstar. It will be a slow burn, but the NBA is a quicker rebuild than baseball.
The Indians are doomed because baseball is screwed up. It's the only major sport without a salary cap. The other sports don't have to sweat the whole big market small market thing as much as baseball. All the non big market teams need to pull the chair on the likes of the Yanks and Dodgers and Red Sox and say "we want a salary cap or we are all leaving MLB". That would leave a 6 team MLB where the heavy weights can all slug it out together. The other 20 some teams can form a new league with a salary cap. I realize this idea is ludicious, but it does shed light on the fact that a league without a level playing field will continue to drift off into oblivion
The Browns are back to their old tricks. A new coach on the sidelines, a defensive philosophy switch that calls for a major overhaul. I'm not holding my breath. The new coach, Pat Shurmur, has never been a head coach...on any level. He's barely been an offensive coordinator (2yrs. with the Rams) and now he wants to be head coach and call the offensive plays. I'm not seeing the silver lining for 2011. While the hated Pittsburgh Steelers are going for super bowl #7 (#3 since 1999), the Browns are looking for playoff berth #2.
I'm thinking of taking the next couple of years off from fandom. If that proves enjoyable, a may extend it indefinitely.
The Cavs go from first to worst. The Indians continue to be a farm team for the rest of baseball and had the MLB's worst attendance. The Tribe and Royals drag-raced for last in the AL Central and were able to gas past KC to hold on to 4th place. The Browns fired yet another head coach...Eric Mangini this time. The Brownies are working on coach #5 since the rebirth in 1999.
All three franchises are going nowhere. The Cavs are in the most immediate heap of crap. They went 0 for January(0-16) and are riding a 21 game losing streak. At least a top 4 lottery pick awaits them at season's end. The team is probably looking at a 3-4 year period where the lottery will be home. That is 3 or 4 chances of coming up with a new superstar. It will be a slow burn, but the NBA is a quicker rebuild than baseball.
The Indians are doomed because baseball is screwed up. It's the only major sport without a salary cap. The other sports don't have to sweat the whole big market small market thing as much as baseball. All the non big market teams need to pull the chair on the likes of the Yanks and Dodgers and Red Sox and say "we want a salary cap or we are all leaving MLB". That would leave a 6 team MLB where the heavy weights can all slug it out together. The other 20 some teams can form a new league with a salary cap. I realize this idea is ludicious, but it does shed light on the fact that a league without a level playing field will continue to drift off into oblivion
The Browns are back to their old tricks. A new coach on the sidelines, a defensive philosophy switch that calls for a major overhaul. I'm not holding my breath. The new coach, Pat Shurmur, has never been a head coach...on any level. He's barely been an offensive coordinator (2yrs. with the Rams) and now he wants to be head coach and call the offensive plays. I'm not seeing the silver lining for 2011. While the hated Pittsburgh Steelers are going for super bowl #7 (#3 since 1999), the Browns are looking for playoff berth #2.
I'm thinking of taking the next couple of years off from fandom. If that proves enjoyable, a may extend it indefinitely.
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