Will The Cleveland Indians Really Increase The Payroll For 2012?

The 2011 Indians payroll was $49.2 M, 26th out of 30 teams. Nearly $27 M was tied up in three players: Travis Hafner ($13 M), Grady Sizemore ($7.6 M), and Fausto Carmona ($6.285 M). Hafner played in 94 games, Sizemore in 71, while Carmona missed just one start only to have a dreadful season (7-15, 5.25 ERA). The Indians have been thrifty for the last 9 seasons and have very little margin for error when they DO spend money.

According to Baseball Prospectus.com, the Indians have just 3 players under contract for next year: Hafner, Sizemore, and Ubaldo Jimenez ($4.2 M). Baseball has a unique system that requires players to have "service time" (time on major league roster) in order to earn free agency. If a player has fewer than 5 years of service time, the team controls that player's contract . The salary can be set by the team or by an independent arbitor. The Indians have not had to use arbitration since the early 1990's. In my opinion, Carmona should only return if he makes no more than Ubaldo's $4.2 M. The team can decline his option and still offer arbitration for 2012. Offering arbitration ties Carmona to the club for 2012, but likely for less than what he made this season.

According to MLBtraderumors.com, the team has 8 arbitration-eligible players: Justin Masterson, Jack Hannahan, Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Smith, Carmona, and Rafael Perez. Based on the site's ratings for what the players are worth and assuming the team picks up Sizemore's option, the payroll would be about $56 M. GM Chris Antonetti will be telling the truth by saying that the payroll will increase for 2012. It will increase just by keeping the same players from last season.

2009: $81.6 M
2010: $61.5 M
2011: $49.2 M



As for the rest of the money for 2012, the team needs a 1B, LF/CF. The only money available to spend would be Grady's $9 M. If Sizemore does not have his option picked up, he would be a free agent. He is not in an advantageous position heading into free agency, especially if he needs additional knee surgery. Therefore, he will not see many good offers. That being the case, the Indians may sign him to an incentive-laden contract with the potential to reach his full option money.

The Indians usually target players in Sizemore's situation. Guys like Carl Pavano who have been hurt and are trying to audition for their next contract. If Grady gets an offer for $3-4 M plus incentives, he would probably have to take it. That offer might come from the Indians alone. If Grady decides to stay for less than his option number of $9 M, let's say $4 M, the team could spend $5 M on a first baseman. Here is what the team would bring back for 2012:

C Carlos Santana
1B
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
LF Michael Brantley
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Shin-Soo Choo
DH Travis Hafner

First Base Options (mlbtraderumors.com):

Russell Branyan (36) *Been There, Done That*
Jorge Cantu (30) *Would Come Cheap*
Michael Cuddyer (33) *Great Option*
Prince Fielder (28) *No Chance*
Ross Gload (36) *Too Old, Not That Good*
Brad Hawpe (33) *Injured, Tommy John*
Eric Hinske (34) - $1.5M club option with a $100K buyout
Casey Kotchman (29) *Plus defense, good obp, not a big run producer*
Mark Kotsay (36) *Too Old*
Derrek Lee (36) *Washed Up*
Xavier Nady (33) *Platoon player, no power*
Lyle Overbay (35) *over the hill, no power*
Carlos Pena (34) *An actual power hitter, getting older, low average/high obp*
Wily Mo Pena (30) *Platoon player*
Albert Pujols (32) *No F'ing Way!*

#1. Michael Cuddyer .284/20hr/70rbi/.346/.459/.805/3.1 war
#2. Carlos Pena .225/28hr/80rbi/.357/.462/.819/2.6 war
#3. Casey Kotchman .306/10hr/48rbi/.378/.422/.800/2.8 war

Carlos Santana .239/27hr/79rbi/.351/.457/.808/3.8 war

Left Field

#1. Josh Willingham (33) .246/29hr/98rbi/.332/.477/.809/2.1 war
#2. Ryan Ludwick (33) .237/13hr/75rbi/.310/.363/.670/0.3 war

The Indians need to target 2 players from the above list. Michael Cuddyer would be the best choice not only based on the numbers, but because he can play 1B and LF/RF. Pena or Kotchman would help as well. If none of them can be targeted, Josh Willingham would be a decent fall back. I'm going to have a little creative license and project an opening day lineup.

C Carlos Santana
1B Michael Cuddyer
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
LF Josh Willingham
CF Michael Brantley
RF Shin-Soo Choo
DH Travis Hafner

1) Michael Brantley .266/.318/.384
2) Jason Kipnis .272/.333/.507
3) Asdrubal Cabrera .273/.332/.460
4) Travis Hafner .280/.361/.449
5) Carlos Santana .239/.351/.457
6) Josh Willingham .246/.332/.477
7) Michael Cuddyer .284/.346/.459
or Carlos Pena .225/.357/.462
8) Shin-Soo Choo .259/.344/.390
9) Lonnie Chisenhall .255/.284/.415

I would be excited about that lineup. Is it possible? It depends on what happens to Grady and what the market will be for Cuddyer. He could go for $9 M a year. If he does it will not be with the Indians. My projection for what the Indians will spend in free agency is $10M. Willingham may be worth $4-5M. Pena & Kotchman could fetch about the same. Maybe they replace Grady with Pena and Williamham. I do not think Grady can stay healthy so it would be a good replacement.

Will the Indians management really spend money for 2012? Yes. My payroll guess is about $56-60M. It would be an increase of $7-11M from last year. And it will not include Grade Sizemore.