Will The Cleveland Indians Really Increase The Payroll For 2012?
The 2011 Indians payroll was $49.2 M, 26th out of 30 teams. Nearly $27 M was tied up in three players: Travis Hafner ($13 M), Grady Sizemore ($7.6 M), and Fausto Carmona ($6.285 M). Hafner played in 94 games, Sizemore in 71, while Carmona missed just one start only to have a dreadful season (7-15, 5.25 ERA). The Indians have been thrifty for the last 9 seasons and have very little margin for error when they DO spend money.
According to Baseball Prospectus.com, the Indians have just 3 players under contract for next year: Hafner, Sizemore, and Ubaldo Jimenez ($4.2 M). Baseball has a unique system that requires players to have "service time" (time on major league roster) in order to earn free agency. If a player has fewer than 5 years of service time, the team controls that player's contract . The salary can be set by the team or by an independent arbitor. The Indians have not had to use arbitration since the early 1990's. In my opinion, Carmona should only return if he makes no more than Ubaldo's $4.2 M. The team can decline his option and still offer arbitration for 2012. Offering arbitration ties Carmona to the club for 2012, but likely for less than what he made this season.
According to MLBtraderumors.com, the team has 8 arbitration-eligible players: Justin Masterson, Jack Hannahan, Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Smith, Carmona, and Rafael Perez. Based on the site's ratings for what the players are worth and assuming the team picks up Sizemore's option, the payroll would be about $56 M. GM Chris Antonetti will be telling the truth by saying that the payroll will increase for 2012. It will increase just by keeping the same players from last season.
2009: $81.6 M
2010: $61.5 M
2011: $49.2 M
As for the rest of the money for 2012, the team needs a 1B, LF/CF. The only money available to spend would be Grady's $9 M. If Sizemore does not have his option picked up, he would be a free agent. He is not in an advantageous position heading into free agency, especially if he needs additional knee surgery. Therefore, he will not see many good offers. That being the case, the Indians may sign him to an incentive-laden contract with the potential to reach his full option money.
The Indians usually target players in Sizemore's situation. Guys like Carl Pavano who have been hurt and are trying to audition for their next contract. If Grady gets an offer for $3-4 M plus incentives, he would probably have to take it. That offer might come from the Indians alone. If Grady decides to stay for less than his option number of $9 M, let's say $4 M, the team could spend $5 M on a first baseman. Here is what the team would bring back for 2012:
C Carlos Santana
1B
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
LF Michael Brantley
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Shin-Soo Choo
DH Travis Hafner
First Base Options (mlbtraderumors.com):
Russell Branyan (36) *Been There, Done That*
Jorge Cantu (30) *Would Come Cheap*
Michael Cuddyer (33) *Great Option*
Prince Fielder (28) *No Chance*
Ross Gload (36) *Too Old, Not That Good*
Brad Hawpe (33) *Injured, Tommy John*
Eric Hinske (34) - $1.5M club option with a $100K buyout
Casey Kotchman (29) *Plus defense, good obp, not a big run producer*
Mark Kotsay (36) *Too Old*
Derrek Lee (36) *Washed Up*
Xavier Nady (33) *Platoon player, no power*
Lyle Overbay (35) *over the hill, no power*
Carlos Pena (34) *An actual power hitter, getting older, low average/high obp*
Wily Mo Pena (30) *Platoon player*
Albert Pujols (32) *No F'ing Way!*
#1. Michael Cuddyer .284/20hr/70rbi/.346/.459/.805/3.1 war
#2. Carlos Pena .225/28hr/80rbi/.357/.462/.819/2.6 war
#3. Casey Kotchman .306/10hr/48rbi/.378/.422/.800/2.8 war
Carlos Santana .239/27hr/79rbi/.351/.457/.808/3.8 war
Left Field
#1. Josh Willingham (33) .246/29hr/98rbi/.332/.477/.809/2.1 war
#2. Ryan Ludwick (33) .237/13hr/75rbi/.310/.363/.670/0.3 war
The Indians need to target 2 players from the above list. Michael Cuddyer would be the best choice not only based on the numbers, but because he can play 1B and LF/RF. Pena or Kotchman would help as well. If none of them can be targeted, Josh Willingham would be a decent fall back. I'm going to have a little creative license and project an opening day lineup.
C Carlos Santana
1B Michael Cuddyer
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
LF Josh Willingham
CF Michael Brantley
RF Shin-Soo Choo
DH Travis Hafner
1) Michael Brantley .266/.318/.384
2) Jason Kipnis .272/.333/.507
3) Asdrubal Cabrera .273/.332/.460
4) Travis Hafner .280/.361/.449
5) Carlos Santana .239/.351/.457
6) Josh Willingham .246/.332/.477
7) Michael Cuddyer .284/.346/.459
or Carlos Pena .225/.357/.462
8) Shin-Soo Choo .259/.344/.390
9) Lonnie Chisenhall .255/.284/.415
I would be excited about that lineup. Is it possible? It depends on what happens to Grady and what the market will be for Cuddyer. He could go for $9 M a year. If he does it will not be with the Indians. My projection for what the Indians will spend in free agency is $10M. Willingham may be worth $4-5M. Pena & Kotchman could fetch about the same. Maybe they replace Grady with Pena and Williamham. I do not think Grady can stay healthy so it would be a good replacement.
Will the Indians management really spend money for 2012? Yes. My payroll guess is about $56-60M. It would be an increase of $7-11M from last year. And it will not include Grade Sizemore.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Friday, September 16, 2011
Browns, Cavs, Indians (Not So) Quick Hits
The 2011 Cleveland Browns look striking similar to the 1999-2010 version: mistake-prone, unable to stop the run, shrinking violets when it matters. There are still 15 games left to maybe figure out the new offense, stuff the run on D, and not look terrible/embarrassing.
Somehow, the Browns were 6 1/2 point favorites against the Bengals. They proceeded to play possibly the worst 15 minutes of football since the rebirth. The offense moved backwards on the first possession with penalties and a couple tackles for loss winding up with a 3-and-out and a 20 yard punt. How is that for starting the season?
It is embarrassing to be a Browns fan. A 20 yard punt? Obviously that is beyond terrible. Unfortunately the punting woes did not end there. He also "contributed" a 28 & 30 yarder. The team placed Mr. McGee on injured reserve after the game. It was reported that the team knew of his back issue prior to kickoff, but figured f it, let's play him anyway. It's a well known fact that punters are generally the toughest guys on the team.
Why am I spending so much time on the punting game? His crappy punts led to 17 points! The great field position helped take the pressure off the Bengals offense, which was led by rookie Andy Dalton. Short fields usually lead to points. If the team knew that McGee was hurt and then watched him shank his first punt of the game 20 yards, why did Coach Shurmur let him shank 2 more? Why? Easy, it was Shurmur's first regular season game as a coach at any level.
Let's hope most of the embarrassing football was shaked out on opening day. After all the crappy football over the past decade, it's time to get this right. I want to see a sound football team that plays hard, plays smart, and doesn't beat itself. The team still has a long way to go talent-wise before it can win consistantly. It is not too much to ask of a team to avoid multiply false start penalties and punting it shorter than a decent Pop Warner team.
Cavs
I am a huge fan of the NBA lockout. I hope it goes the distance. I am sickened by what has happened to the league over the past few years. Owners need to stand their ground and gain control back from the agents and players. Plus, the Cavs are going to be terrible. Oh, and it keeps Lebron from winning anything.
Indians
I hope something good can be taken from the 2011 season. The team played good for a month and a half and like usual the rest of the way. I believe that is known as regression to the mean. There are some real questions about this team going into next year. The lineup is impish and the starting pitching lacks an ace and some depth. Grady Sizemore has no future with this team. He has not been able to stay healthy and when he has, he turned into Cory Snyder. Travis Hafner is an anchor and not in a good way. His high salary takes up nearly a third of the payroll. He had some hot streaks this year, but still is an injury risk. I believe he's under contract for 2 more seasons.
There are a few bright spots. Asdrubal Cabrera had a breakout year (although he is on fumes right now), Carlos Santana has been resilient, and Jason Kipnis has shown promise. That just leaves question marks at 1B, 3B, LF, and CF. Lonnie Chisenhall is seen as the answer at third, but he has not exactly shown it at the big league level. Matt LaPorta has shown nothing in parts of 3 seasons with the team. I hope that the front office actually tries to address these holes in the off season. I'm not counting on it.
On the the pitching staff...Justin Masterson has been great all year. That is where the consistency ends. Ubaldo Jimenez could be good, but he can hardly get through 5 or 6 innings without throwing 100 pitches. I'm not sure if Josh Tomlin is healthy. He had a nice year and won 11 games. Ultimately, he would be a decent 4 or 5 starter on a playoff team. Fausto Carmona is someone that I am ready to pull the plug on. His starts are nerve-wracking to watch and he is never the same pitcher from start to start. Let him be someone else's project. David Huff does not fool me, either. His ERA makes you think he's good. His track record the last couple years says this guy is a bum.
Starters
Justin Masterson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Fausto Carmona
Josh Tomlin (if he doesn't need surgery)
Jeanmar Gomez
I want Jimenez and Carmona gone. I don't like watching them pitch. It's like a slow-motion train wreck. Tomlin's consistent, but is a soft tosser. Gomez would be adequate as the 5th starter. Masterson is the #1 only because someone has to take the ball on opening day. He's not an ace, but he had a strong 2011. If he got any run support, he'd have 18 wins.
Lineup
SS Cabrera
2B Kipnis
RF Choo
DH Hafner
C Santana
CF Sizemore
3B Chisenhall
1B LaPorta
LF Crowe
This probably won't be the actual lineup. It's my attempt to show that the front office will sit on their hands and act like having everyone healthy is like making additions. At the very least, the team needs to add a first basemen and left fielder. Those spots should not be at the bottom of the order. LaPorta is a bust. Also, left field should contribute 20 homers minimum.
That's all I got.
The 2011 Cleveland Browns look striking similar to the 1999-2010 version: mistake-prone, unable to stop the run, shrinking violets when it matters. There are still 15 games left to maybe figure out the new offense, stuff the run on D, and not look terrible/embarrassing.
Somehow, the Browns were 6 1/2 point favorites against the Bengals. They proceeded to play possibly the worst 15 minutes of football since the rebirth. The offense moved backwards on the first possession with penalties and a couple tackles for loss winding up with a 3-and-out and a 20 yard punt. How is that for starting the season?
It is embarrassing to be a Browns fan. A 20 yard punt? Obviously that is beyond terrible. Unfortunately the punting woes did not end there. He also "contributed" a 28 & 30 yarder. The team placed Mr. McGee on injured reserve after the game. It was reported that the team knew of his back issue prior to kickoff, but figured f it, let's play him anyway. It's a well known fact that punters are generally the toughest guys on the team.
Why am I spending so much time on the punting game? His crappy punts led to 17 points! The great field position helped take the pressure off the Bengals offense, which was led by rookie Andy Dalton. Short fields usually lead to points. If the team knew that McGee was hurt and then watched him shank his first punt of the game 20 yards, why did Coach Shurmur let him shank 2 more? Why? Easy, it was Shurmur's first regular season game as a coach at any level.
Let's hope most of the embarrassing football was shaked out on opening day. After all the crappy football over the past decade, it's time to get this right. I want to see a sound football team that plays hard, plays smart, and doesn't beat itself. The team still has a long way to go talent-wise before it can win consistantly. It is not too much to ask of a team to avoid multiply false start penalties and punting it shorter than a decent Pop Warner team.
Cavs
I am a huge fan of the NBA lockout. I hope it goes the distance. I am sickened by what has happened to the league over the past few years. Owners need to stand their ground and gain control back from the agents and players. Plus, the Cavs are going to be terrible. Oh, and it keeps Lebron from winning anything.
Indians
I hope something good can be taken from the 2011 season. The team played good for a month and a half and like usual the rest of the way. I believe that is known as regression to the mean. There are some real questions about this team going into next year. The lineup is impish and the starting pitching lacks an ace and some depth. Grady Sizemore has no future with this team. He has not been able to stay healthy and when he has, he turned into Cory Snyder. Travis Hafner is an anchor and not in a good way. His high salary takes up nearly a third of the payroll. He had some hot streaks this year, but still is an injury risk. I believe he's under contract for 2 more seasons.
There are a few bright spots. Asdrubal Cabrera had a breakout year (although he is on fumes right now), Carlos Santana has been resilient, and Jason Kipnis has shown promise. That just leaves question marks at 1B, 3B, LF, and CF. Lonnie Chisenhall is seen as the answer at third, but he has not exactly shown it at the big league level. Matt LaPorta has shown nothing in parts of 3 seasons with the team. I hope that the front office actually tries to address these holes in the off season. I'm not counting on it.
On the the pitching staff...Justin Masterson has been great all year. That is where the consistency ends. Ubaldo Jimenez could be good, but he can hardly get through 5 or 6 innings without throwing 100 pitches. I'm not sure if Josh Tomlin is healthy. He had a nice year and won 11 games. Ultimately, he would be a decent 4 or 5 starter on a playoff team. Fausto Carmona is someone that I am ready to pull the plug on. His starts are nerve-wracking to watch and he is never the same pitcher from start to start. Let him be someone else's project. David Huff does not fool me, either. His ERA makes you think he's good. His track record the last couple years says this guy is a bum.
Starters
Justin Masterson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Fausto Carmona
Josh Tomlin (if he doesn't need surgery)
Jeanmar Gomez
I want Jimenez and Carmona gone. I don't like watching them pitch. It's like a slow-motion train wreck. Tomlin's consistent, but is a soft tosser. Gomez would be adequate as the 5th starter. Masterson is the #1 only because someone has to take the ball on opening day. He's not an ace, but he had a strong 2011. If he got any run support, he'd have 18 wins.
Lineup
SS Cabrera
2B Kipnis
RF Choo
DH Hafner
C Santana
CF Sizemore
3B Chisenhall
1B LaPorta
LF Crowe
This probably won't be the actual lineup. It's my attempt to show that the front office will sit on their hands and act like having everyone healthy is like making additions. At the very least, the team needs to add a first basemen and left fielder. Those spots should not be at the bottom of the order. LaPorta is a bust. Also, left field should contribute 20 homers minimum.
That's all I got.
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
The Tribe: 2011 Strong Start, Bitter Finish
It's crazy to think that the Cleveland Indians started off so amazingly well. A 30-15 record has given way to 40-55 clip, thus a 70-68 record as of September 6th. Technically, the team is in a pennant race with Detroit, but the team would need a frantic finish to take the crown. 24 games for the Indians, 21 for the Tigers. The Tribe are 6 games down in the loss column and 9 games in the win column which amounts to a 7.5 game deficit. If the Indians finish 20-4 down the stretch, their record would be 90-72. If the Tigers finish 11-10 their last 21, the teams would finish tied. The tiebreaker would be the head-to-head record.
Looking at the two rosters, the Tigers lineup looks vastly superior. The Tigers have 4 guys hitting over .300 to the Indians none. The Tigers have been fairly injury-free while the Indians have had injuries galore. Every statistic sides with the Tigers. All rational folks believe the Tigers will win the central. Yet, there sit the Cleveland Indians in 2nd place. No, they probably have no business being there. Not with the injuries and inexperienced lineup which looks pretty similar to what AAA Columbus trotted out there on opening day.
As bleak as it looks, guys are gaining experience in the big leagues when it counts. Baseball is a game played by grown men. It's played on a field and not on paper. I'd love to see the stat book thrown out the window. I'd love to see the Indians catch lightning in a bottle and run the table. Normally I would count them out by this point, but I decided to write this blog entry.
Maybe these kids can relax in the face of long odds and thrive. No pressure. Finish this out strong. One solid at bat at a time. One strike at a time. This is supposed to be fun. Smile out there and enjoy the beautiful game.
It's crazy to think that the Cleveland Indians started off so amazingly well. A 30-15 record has given way to 40-55 clip, thus a 70-68 record as of September 6th. Technically, the team is in a pennant race with Detroit, but the team would need a frantic finish to take the crown. 24 games for the Indians, 21 for the Tigers. The Tribe are 6 games down in the loss column and 9 games in the win column which amounts to a 7.5 game deficit. If the Indians finish 20-4 down the stretch, their record would be 90-72. If the Tigers finish 11-10 their last 21, the teams would finish tied. The tiebreaker would be the head-to-head record.
Looking at the two rosters, the Tigers lineup looks vastly superior. The Tigers have 4 guys hitting over .300 to the Indians none. The Tigers have been fairly injury-free while the Indians have had injuries galore. Every statistic sides with the Tigers. All rational folks believe the Tigers will win the central. Yet, there sit the Cleveland Indians in 2nd place. No, they probably have no business being there. Not with the injuries and inexperienced lineup which looks pretty similar to what AAA Columbus trotted out there on opening day.
As bleak as it looks, guys are gaining experience in the big leagues when it counts. Baseball is a game played by grown men. It's played on a field and not on paper. I'd love to see the stat book thrown out the window. I'd love to see the Indians catch lightning in a bottle and run the table. Normally I would count them out by this point, but I decided to write this blog entry.
Maybe these kids can relax in the face of long odds and thrive. No pressure. Finish this out strong. One solid at bat at a time. One strike at a time. This is supposed to be fun. Smile out there and enjoy the beautiful game.
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